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TODAY Thursday 15 January 1998 Each weekday. Conn Nugent on what's new in the world, on the site.

 

TODAY IN THE WORLD: Twenty-Four Forty or Fight!

"Economists think of drops in oil prices as being like tax cuts because they can directly put money into consumers' pockets."

Great.

The quote is from Jonathan Fuerbringer in this morning's New York Times. He reports that the price of a barrel of imported crude oil dropped 5.4% in December and 25.5% in 1997. You can now buy a barrel for under $17 (Where, by the way? Is there a tanker outlet store at the docks?). With this oil-price drop we also get plummeting Asian currencies and therefore maniacally purposeful Asian exporters who will sell things to Americans or go under. "You're going to be able to buy a Hyundai car at $8,500; you're going to get your teddy bear at FAO Schwartz at 35% cheaper," says a Deutsche Bank expert quoted in another Times article this morning. "It's going to drive the US trade numbers crazy."

In the short run, at least, cheap oil and cheap teddy bears may be good news for Americans' purchasing power but bad news for the environment. More pollution and more resource depletion, sure, but the most worrisome part is that cheap oil means ever less incentive to switch from fossil fuels to renewable fuels or to switch from energy extravagance to energy conservation. Show me the car owner who drives less these days because of the price of gasoline.

And things could get worse (better, whatever) if the supply of petroleum keeps rising. If sanction-fatigue sets in, Iraq will begin exporting again. And Russia and the new Central Asian states are pumping way under capacity. Seventeen dollars a barrel may seem expensive pretty soon.

Luckily, yet another story in the morning paper may show the way out. Saddam Hussein is fighting sanction-fatigue and inducing Mike McCurry to rattle sabers. War! The handful of Clausewitzian environmentalists will realize that a war against Iraq must be sold as a struggle against a tyrant with doomsday weapons who thumbs his nose at America, but we're for it as an efficient means to keep additional petroleum out of the world's pipelines. Should any other oil-rich countries in the neighborhood protest our invasion (please, please), we can then invade them and cap their wells too. The massive drop in world supplies would boost the price of crude to its highest historical level. The energy savings that would ensue from speedy adaptation of fuel-efficient cars and appliances throughout the world would have to be weighed against the energy expenditures needed to ship, deploy, and maintain an armored army of occupation, but that's simple calculator work

 

TODAY ON THE SITE

Need a little refresher course on Energy and the Environment? We've got one: a place where an expert professional (Victoria Chanse) links you to the five best Websites on which to pursue your self-education. It's all in High Fives.

 

Recent "Today" columns:

1/14: Your Tax Dollars at Work
1/13: Johnny Mobil Appleseed
1/12: Superbowl, Scientific Uncertainty, and the Future of Al Gore
1/9: Goodbye, Delaware
1/8: Leaf Blowers, Old Cars, Class Conflict
1/7: The Great Improvement That Didn't
1/6: Proactive, Shmoactive
1/5: Mediocre Landscapes and Hope for the Planet
1/2: The Greatest Environmental Cause of the Year
12/31/97: The Top Twelve Environment Stories of 1997

To access more "Today" columns, click "Archives" below.