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TODAY Thursday 13 November 1997 Each weekday. Conn Nugent on what's new in the world, on the site. |
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TODAY Thursday 13 November 1997 Each weekday. Conn Nugent on what's new in the world, on the site. |
TODAY IN THE WORLD: Tim Wirth's Excellent Adventure
The United States Undersecretary of State for Global Affairs is Timothy Wirth, former senator from Colorado, and these are big days for him. Tim Wirth must persuade the governments of the world that their self-interests lie in agreeing to the Clinton Administration position on a climate change treaty. There are three main pillars to the US position: rich nations must reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by 2012; reductions credited to a given country may be realized by energy-conserving activities undertaken on the territory of another country; and all signatory countries, rich and poor alike, must bind themselves to some "meaningful participation" from the get-go. Can he make this position palatable to the wide world, and then can it be sold to the US Senate early next year? Maybe not, actually, but the Undersecretary seems to be having a good time trying. At least lately.
At the official, final pre-Kyoto-conference meeting which took place in Bonn the last week of October, the news was no news. "Stalemate" was the word often relied on to describe the non-movement of the major parties. Gloom was abundant. Undersecretary Wirth, almost certainly the "senior US delegate" mentioned in various wire service dispatches, was unusual in his upbeat reading. "There will be four to five informal opportunities between now and Kyoto to make further progress on this," he said. He thought that Europe and the developing countries understood better the comprehensiveness and flexible ingenuity of the American position.
In Tokyo last weekend, his optimism seemed vindicated. In the kind of smaller, off-the-record sessions that any negotiation needs (can you imagine trying to strike a deal in a world forum?), the Undersecretary appeared to have won some friendly winks from around the table. The Europeans were talking in a conciliatory way about the need for developing countries to participate (in some way or other) in the earliest stages of a reduction process, and there were signs as well that a number of key Latin American and Asian nations would be willing to sign on to some kind of rhetoric about everybody-pulling-their-load-right-from-the-start ("The Silver Republic and the People's Republic").
And the American emission-reduction targets -- earlier excoriated by enviros and mocked by Eurocrats -- now perhaps don't look so godawful after all. As Tim Wirth has said all along, the American proposal has the virtue of covering all the major greenhouse gases, not just carbon dioxide, and social democrats from all over are open to persuasion on the advantages of emissions trading.
Plus everybody knows about American politics. They know about the need for Senate ratification, and the about the immense pressures that will be brought to bear on even the most temperate of treaty texts. They know about Jesse Helms. That Tim Wirth was a senator does no harm right now.
So increasingly, it appears, treaty proposals that are sympathetic to the American position will be put forward by non-Americans. The Brazilian idea of a "Green Bank," for instance, can probably accommodate the American need for an international regime for emissions trading. Look for the Japanese to propose reduction timetables that will adopt the American substance but in language comfortable to the Europeans. And you can certainly anticipate that there will be a treaty text, probably introduced by a Pacific Ocean state, that obliges all parties to do something from Day One -- otherwise Tim Wirth just can't come home. The fun part will be to guess about the high-stakes horsetrading that will have to occur for the Americans to get their language and for the Chinese and Indians to feel it's worth their while.
TODAY ON THE SITE
Need a quick brushup on your climate change science? Want to keep up with the latest changes in Kyoto jockeying? Don't neglect to consult Leonie Haimson in our In The Trenches section.
Recent "Today" columns:
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11/11: Armistice Day and the Next Great War
11/10: Mea Maxima Culpa
11/07: Inflexible Flyers
11/06: Meaningless Votes, Really
11/05: In Praise of SeaWeb
11/04: Reality Check
11/03: Green Loafing
10/31: Guilty Nationalist Pleasures
10/30: Europe Alone
10/29: Duck! (Again)
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