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TODAY Friday 20 March 1998 Each weekday. Conn Nugent on what's new in the world, on the site.

 

TODAY IN THE WORLD: The Thrill of Demography

How marvelous is the US Census Bureau!

Just when stressed synapses can fire no more, when sheer mental fatigue tempts one to scrutinize photographs of naked young adults or check in on the well-being of the Green Bay Packers , the venerable bean-counters in Washington roll out some new numbers that are endlessly fascinating and (mostly) beyond dispute. Turn off the judgmentalism switch and frolic in the fields of fact.

Two Internet-available documents are especially recommended. For the most recent Big Picture (most data are for 1995), you can't beat "How We're Changing: Demographic State of the Nation 1997." For the Up-To-The-Minute, you should pore over the tabulations on every county in the country -- births, deaths, migrations, age, race, income, family size, home ownership, etc., etc. -- just released three days ago.

Let's start with the Big Picture. Here's the lead paragraph, and no wonder it comes first:

"The United States population would increase by 50 percent, from 263 million in 1995 to 394 million in 2050, under the Census Bureau's middle-series population projections. The population would grow to 275 million in 2000, and 347 million in 2030. The average annual growth rate, however, would decrease from 1.05 percent for the 1990-1995 period to 0.63 percent for the 2040-2050 period."

Other news:

• The growing population will get grayer. In 1995 about 13 percent of Americans were over 65. In 2050, expect 20 percent.
• 69 percent of American children lived with two parents in 1995, down from 85 percent in 1970. Of the 27 percent living with a single parent, about 60 percent of the cases involved divorce or separation. 21 percent of white kids lived with one parent, 56 percent of black kids, and 33 percent of Latino kids.
• More people than ever are getting diplomas. 82 percent of adults over 25 had a high school degree in 1995, and 23 percent had a bachelor's degree or more. The younger the age cohort, the more years in school: only 57 percent of the adults over 75 graduated from high school. And the younger the age cohort, the smaller the distance in graduation rates between whites on the one hand and blacks and Latinos on the other.
• 9 percent of Americans were foreign born in 1995, up from 5 percent in 1970, down from 15 percent in 1910. More than 25 percent of the foreign-born were born in Mexico. The Philippines were next.
• Real median household income reached $34,076 in 1995. In 1995 dollars, the median household income was $35,421 in 1989 and $33,178 in 1994. (According to the Bureau, a household is defined as "a group of people who occupy a housing unit.")
• 65 percent of housing units were lived in by their owners (Take a bow, Thomas Jefferson; take a bow, tax-deductible mortgage payments). 45 percent of families maintained by women lived in housing they owned.

And now to the Up-To-The-Minute report, released for publication on Tuesday. Each year the Bureau estimates population changes in every county of the United States, and the results for 1997 are just in. (These estimates, by the way, tend to be a good deal more accurate than the actual decennial census enumeration). Here are some of the major findings:

• The country is developing what the Bureau calls "a 'donut' pattern of growth." Populations continue to decline in the older inner cities and in most places more than 25 miles away from the borders of metropolitan areas. Populations continue to rise in the newer inner cities and population growth in suburbs almost everywhere is skyrocketing.
• Of the ten fastest-growing counties in the United States, three are in Colorado, three are in northern Georgia, and all are within or border on metropolitan areas. The fastest grower of all is Douglas County, Colorado, south of Denver, which increased its population 13 percent in 1996 - 1997.
• In terms of sheer numbers, rather than rates, the biggest increases were all in the Sunbelt. Maricopa County, Arizona (Greater Phoenix) added 83,000 residents last year. Number Two was Los Angeles County, up 62,000; Number Three was Clark County, Nevada (Las Vegas), up 60,000.
• Overall, the population of the country grew by 0.9% in 1997. The Northeast grew 0.2 percent, the Midwest grew 0.6 percent, the South grew 1.3 percent, and the West grew 1.6 percent.
• In the five counties that constitute New York City (on to important matters now), population grew 0.5 percent last year. In the 1990s about 1.1 million New Yorkers have left and about 0.7 million foreigners have moved in. Quite an Apple turnover.

 

TODAY ON THE SITE

For deep backgrounders on most of the things that matter about population, including a provocative pro-and-con on US immigration, there's no better spot than the relevant portion of our In The Trenches section. Dianne Sherman did all the heavy lifting.

 

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3/19: About This Global Economy Business...
3/18: Toilet Heresy
3/17: St Patrick and Your Asteroid Insurance
3/16: Rebellion in Tennessee
3/13: Good News from the Senate
3/12: Children and Cancer
3/11: Save Our Beaches!
3/10: Die Gruenen und der SDP
3/9: In Search for the Holy Grail of the Forests
3/6: My Doom, Your Gloom
3/5: The Great D. P. Moynihan
3/4: "An Earthquake in Insurance"
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2/27: Trust El Nino
2/26: That Darn Triple-A
2/25: Cutting a Deal on Endangered Species
2/24: Fire? Again?
2/23: Garbage
2/20: Population Rebellion in the Sierra Club
2/19: The Trouble With Cattle

To access more "Today" columns, click "Archives" below.