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TODAY Thursday 17 July 1997 Each weekday. Conn Nugent on what's new in the world, on the site. |
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TODAY Thursday 17 July 1997 Each weekday. Conn Nugent on what's new in the world, on the site. |
TODAY IN THE WORLD: Downward and Outward Mobility
This morning's paper brings fresh evidence of the primacy of the automobile. General Motors and Ford have regained their positions as Numbers One and Two on the Fortune 500 index of the world's largest companies, as measured by gross sales. According to Keith Bradsher of the New York Times, the resurgence of the American giants can be attributed both to the dollar's rise in value over the Japanese yen and to robust demand for new lines of vehicles.
That sales are up is always reassuring to a shareholder, but profits are what matter. And there the news is very good for GM and Ford. Bradsher reports that both companies posted "better-than-expected second-quarter earnings, profiting from lower costs and America's seemingly boundless appetite for huge sports utility vehicles and big pickups."
No one disputes that it's the big-ticket SUVs that have made all the difference. The auto industry as a whole is on an ascendant slope of overcapacity -- supply will outstrip even the meteoric demand from Latin America and Asia -- and profit margins on economy models will be razor thin. And sooner or later, of course, Ford's and GM's competitors will offer lower prices on the SUVs. But for the moment, at least, Ford's Explorers and Expeditions and GM's Suburbans and Tahoes have the big portion of the field all to themselves. Bradsher quotes a Wall Street analyst to the effect that Ford earns $14,000 in pre-tax profits for every $30,000 Expedition that it sells. Small wonder that Ford has doubled production.
Not to belabor the obvious, but these vehicles are not good for the environment. Their manufacture consumes twice the raw materials of a subcompact. Their operation burns at least twice as much fuel; you would be lucky to get fourteen miles per gallon in the stop-and-go suburban driving that will constitute the normal wilderness conditions faced by intrepid Expedition owners. So gas-hungry are these babies that Ford is equipping some of them to run on ethanol so that they can be portrayed as "alternative fuel" vehicles exempted from federal fuel-efficiency standards.
As long as gasoline stays cheap (the latest consensus projection is that it will, at least through 1998) and as long as the current Congress won't pass a big gas tax or tighten the fuel-efficiency law (shrimp will whistle first, as the Russians say), there seems little to block the accelerating trend away from mini-vans and toward the SUVs. This trend will not make it any easier to enforce the new Clean Air regs, not to mention any greenhouse gas caps that might be agreed to in an international climate change treaty.
Unusually enough for a prissy, hectoring enviro, I've had a long ride in one of these SUV behemoths. A friend of mine reviews new cars, and she took me along for a test drive of the then-new Expedition. It was comfortable, powerful, and roomy enough for the proverbial soccer team. But it really wasn't much fun. Automatic transmission, power steering, loose handling, riding way high above the highway -- the driver is removed from what many regard as the greatest pleasures of the road. Horsepower and load capacity have carried the day.
Of course, you would rather be in a Ford Expedition than be hit by one. Recent evidence from state police says that the new SUVs outweigh and overtower standard cars to such a degree that when they collide, the damage tends to be rougher than usual. It's not yet known whether SUVs are particularly implicated in the increase in traffic fatalities last year -- 41,907 -- but don't bet against it. By the way, what other American activity could kill 42,000 people a year and grow so unceasingly in popularity? And there's the basic issue faced by any green activist sober enough to know that transportation is, by far, the biggest environmental issue of the day -- people here and all across the world want to own and drive cars. We can and must push for public alternatives to the private automobile, but there's no blinking at the fact that we're also going to have to improve the beast on its own terms.
TODAY ON THE SITE
There's lots of good information from a stable of experts on Automobiles in the High Fives section of this site. Website resources on fuel economy, alternative vehicles, and hybrid engines are available at the click of a finger.
Recent "Today" columns:
7/16: A Muggy Day on The Hill
7/15: Plug for Planet Ark
7/14: Follow Me
7/11: Blood Sports
7/10: Oil and Taxes
7/09: Mexico
7/08: By the Sea, By the Sea
7/07: Huddled Masses
7/03: Three-Dot Environmentalism...
7/02: Bothersome Science
To access more "Today" columns, click "Archives" below.