newsroom

TODAY Tuesday 26 August 1997 Each weekday. Conn Nugent on what's new in the world, on the site.

 

TODAY IN THE WORLD: No Drama on the Rhine

When last we looked at the meeting in Bonn to prepare for the big climate change conference in Kyoto ("Necessary Vulgarization"), there was a buzz of anticipation that Bill Clinton's new interest in the subject would impel progress toward reaching a multi-national consensus on what the President called "specific" and "realistic" goals to cap greenhouse gas emissions.

If any progress was made, no one's talking about it. The enviros who gathered in Bonn were disappointed that the session produced scant results and that they themselves seemed to wield little influence. It is at occasions such as the Bonn meeting that staffers of non-governmental organizations find their reason for being, tending to adopt the formulation that they embody "public input." But the big players are paying attention to climate change these days, and decisions on meaningful treaty texts are not going to be taken in any conspicuous forum. Besides, enviros and diplomats alike know that there really isn't very much public opinion from which to draw input; this is a battle of bureaucrats representing important social and economic elites.

For now , at least. As Hibernicus says, mass politics become key in 1998, when the US Senate conducts hearings in preparation for a ratification vote on whatever treaty emerges from Kyoto in December. Already the challenge of the Senate is shaping the substance and process of negotiations, and the evidence is in Tokyo, Washington and Bonn.

Observers were alerted two months ago, when the Japanese government issued an unusually direct criticism of the "radical" CO2-reduction proposal put forward by the European Union. The Japanese then let it be known that they were in agreement, "in principle," with the American concept of tradable international emissions credits. Interpretations were swiftly offered -- the Ministry of Trade & Industry had gained the upper hand over Foreign Affairs; the shoguns of manufacturing had closed ranks; etc. -- but the bottom line was that henceforth the Japanese and the Americans buttoned their lips in public and in private added fuel to the fire of rumors that they had formed an effective alliance to determine the outcome at Kyoto. Certainly this is what the enviro lobbyists believe. They also say that the US and Japan were responsible for the foot-dragging in Bonn by refusing to offer (or consider) formal proposals on emissions targets and timetables.

Back inside the Beltway, climate pros tell us that the development of a US negotiating position is being undertaken by members of the Administration not heretofore identified as environmentalists, particularly Secretary Robert Rubin and Under Secretary Laurence Summers of Treasury. They and their staff (and readers of financial news) have been targeted for an extensive campaign by American manufacturers and energy suppliers. One insider says that Secretary Rubin is now pushing for a commitment to stabilize greenhouse emissions not earlier than 2020. This is certainly not the bold stroke that environmentalists had hoped for, and reflects a prevalent pessimism within the Administration on the practicality of renewable energy systems. As one analyst put it, "Fuel cells have been the Technology of the Future for about fifty years now."

The White House will be holding a media-event conference on climate change in early October, and then everybody goes back to Bonn for the last pre-Kyoto talks on 20-31 October. Can the environmental organizations gin up a little interest between now and then? Greenpeace has been blockading and occupying oil and gas rigs recently, all in the name of heading off climate change ("Free the Greenpeace One Million!"), but no one seems to be paying to much attention to the message. The indifference of the dog days? The depletion of shock value? We'll see what can be done in the next couple of months; it could be a scary Halloween.

 

TODAY ON THE SITE:

To learn about the best Web resources on renewable energy, check out the High Fives work of Jeff Birkby on Energy (Renewables) and Victoria Chanse on Energy (& Environment). Jeff is from the National Center for Alternative Technology, Butte, and Victoria is from the Energy Foundation, San Francisco.

 

Recent "Today" columns:

8/25: The End of Nature Again
8/22: Our Friend Escerichia 0157:H7
8/21: Free the Greenpeace One Million!
8/20: Cattle and Jet Skis
8/19: Not Dirty, but Bad
8/18: Thirty Glorious Years
8/15: We Span the Energy Globe
8/14: Up in Flames
8/13: Environmentalism for Grown-Ups
8/12: Right to No

To access more "Today" columns, click "Archives" below.