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TODAY Tuesday 30 September 1997 Each weekday. Conn Nugent on what's new in the world, on the site.

 

TODAY IN THE WORLD: Climate Policy: No Pain, No Gain

Yesterday we talked about the Optimism Offensive of the Clinton Administration regarding the curtailment of greenhouse gas emissions ("Climate Policy: No Pain, Much Gain"). In a report released last Thursday, the Department of Energy estimated that the reduction of 2010 emissions to 1990 levels could be obtained at no cost to national economic growth. Energy efficiency and technical developments are key. Robust win-win.

Politically, the Administration must say exactly that. When the Office of Management and Budget earlier this year released a report on the possible economic side-effects of flattening the greenhouse gas curve, it assumed that the prices of coal and oil would have to be increased through a special tax. Orthodox economics but political suicide. The Administration all but disowned the estimates. And so, in good time, we have the cheerier scenario of DOE.

But painting a plausible picture of economic uplift is only half the challenge for President Clinton when he forwards the Kyoto Treaty to the US Senate for ratification next year. He also has to cater to nationalist sentiments by assuring the Senate and the people that burdens assumed by Americans will be burdens assumed by Chinese, Indians, and Mexicans. That will be a tough turn.

There is no way that the leaders of developing countries will submit themselves to the same emission-reduction timetables as those that bind the rich countries. But there is no way that the President can go to the Senate with a treaty that doesn't bind the developing countries to do something now, even if most of what they undertake will come later.

These tensions were evident in India the past few days. The administrator of the US Agency for International Development came to New Delhi to announce that "USAID will be expanding its climate change program in India." He spoke of technical transfers, coordination of international loan programs, and "enhancing private sector investment to promote environmental-friendly technologies."

Whether that carrot is sweet enough to offset the anticipated hurt of the stick of emissions controls is the big question for Indians. Last Thursday an influential energy analyst pointed out that almost all of the rich countries had reneged on their climate promises of the Rio Summit. If reducing gases and growing the economy are compatible, why haven't they been done together? And if the rich don't do it, why should we?, asked R.K. Pachauri. How can the US President talk about sharing technology at the same time as he promises American voters that they'll have a leg up on their "international competitors?" And the amount of money to help the poorer countries re-tool is regarded as inadequate: a billion dollars over five years, for all countries combined. "To be quite blunt, the one billion dollars that President Clinton pledged is what one might call the ant biting the back of an elephant," Pachauri said.

Pachauri is an advocate of emissions reductions and a strong spokesman for energy efficiency. An ally. His discontent is a mild version of the hectoring that the US can expect in Kyoto, and a mirror-version of the grief to be expected from the Senate. A big job for Bill Clinton, with enormous repercussions for Al Gore.

 

TODAY ON THE SITE:

This enterprise is now old enough to have archives. Born in mid-April, the Liberty Tree Website early on featured excellent pieces by Bill McKibben (climate), Terry Tempest Williams (need for the wild), and Marty Strange (hog manure and its discontents). Everything is still here, but you now have to look in the archives, which are found at the bottom of the Newsroom page. Happy hunting.

 

Recent "Today" columns:

9/29: Climate Policy: No Pain, Much Gain
9/26: Darwin and Bug Spray
9/25: The Cooling of Los Angeles
9/24: The Boy Who Stalks California
9/23: Fire!
9/22: More Logging and Fishing
9/19: "Here, Sir, the People Rule"
9/18: Dr. Pangloss and the Land Mine Treaty
9/17: Outsourcing Pollution
9/16: In the Preservation of the Funky
9/15: The Problem With Health

To access more "Today" columns, click "Archives" below.