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TODAY Tuesday 25 November 1997 Each weekday. Conn Nugent on what's new in the world, on the site.

 

TODAY IN THE WORLD: Sound Sound-Bite Science

Enough of the pesky imprecision which gets in the way of plain speaking about changes in the weather. Thanks to J.D. Mahlman of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, you can now feign unanxious confidence when dispensing easy-to-swallow summaries of the state of human knowledge, climate division.

As NOAA's press release says, "Mahlman succinctly summarizes the current climate debate, sorts out the various principal predictions of future climate, and rates the confidence level of these predictions on a scale from 'virtually certain facts' to 'incorrect projections.'"

For example. Are greenhouse gases increasing? "Virtually Certain." Has the surface of the earth warmed over the past century? "Virtually Certain."

Now down a peg on the Mahlman Confidence Scale, to where a projection has a greater than 9-out-of-10 chance of being true. Will a doubling of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere lead eventually to a temperature increase of 2 to 8 degrees Fahrenheit? "Very Probable." Will sea levels rise between 1 and 3 feet? "Very Probable."

Then to projections with a better than 2-out-of-3 chance. Will tropical storms become more intense? "Probable."

But mind what you can't say. Will tropical storms become more numerous? "Incorrect Projection." Mahlman thinks that an increase in the number of storms, especially local squalls, is plausible but not yet indicated by any credible evidence.

Dr. Mahlman shies away from socio-cultural projections, but our own gleaning of the literature may be useful when faced with persistent amateur questioners at the Thanksgiving dinner table. So is Pleasant Town going to have warmer winters? "Virtually Certain." And won't plants grow faster in the spring and summer? "Very Probable." So you expect me to support some cockamamie gas tax and drive around in a little death trap of a subcompact to keep the privilege of rotten Februarys and smaller vegetables?

Here we're stumped. The Liberty Tree behavior modificationists are now debating two scientifically-appropriate responses. Choice Number One: "Well, yes, Uncle Billy, there may be some modest changes in our lifestyles, but nothing too difficult, and, you know, in the meantime we'll be developing some clean energy sources that will work out really great for the kids." Choice Number Two: "Yes, you goddam ignoramus, we'll turn your smug greedy life clear upside-down, and if you don't like that idea I'd be happy shove this cranberry whatever-it-is right down your selfish little throat." Lab results forthcoming.

 

TODAY ON THE SITE

Solar Photovoltaics -- the technology of the future for all too long now -- have actually arrived, or just about. Dave Tenenbaum, writer/editor of The Why Files, tells us that the costs of reliable solar-electricity panels have plummeted in recent years. For a smooth summary of the good news about PVs, check out his latest op ed.

 

Recent "Today" columns:

11/24: Home Sweet Storage Locker
11/21: Tim Wirth's Inscrutable Adventure
11/20: Better to Receive than to Give
11/19: Wes Jackson's Problem with Agriculture
11/18: "Stay Home and Be Decent"
11/17: World Cups (Soccer; C02)
11/14: Amtrak, My Amtrak
11/13: Tim Wirth's Excellent Adventure
11/12: Monsters of Wellesley, Massachusetts
11/11: Armistice Day and the Next Great War

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