newsroom

TODAY Monday 2 February 1998 Each weekday. Conn Nugent on what's new in the world, on the site.

 

TODAY IN THE WORLD: Groundhog Day in the Persian Gulf

You remember how Bill Murray has to go through the second day of February 49 times until he gets it right and finally lands Andie McDowell. Maybe the US government is undergoing something similar with Saddam Hussein. Washington writes endless script variations but still can't seem to find the happy ending of a Saddam-less world. With Andie McDowell being so cute, and with central Pennsylvania in February being so unexciting, you could see why Bill Murray wanted to grab the girl and get out of the time warp. It's harder to remember exactly why Saddam has to go.

"This generation's Hitler." That's how William Safire describes Saddam in his column this morning. If every generation has to have a Hitler, he'll do, I suppose, but it would be comforting if more of his putative victims were asking for help. To extend Safire's analogy, the appeasement of Hitler at Munich was not because the Czechs and the Poles didn't want a war. It was Britain and France that blinked. Today the US is rattling sabers, but Iraq's neighbors -- with the exception of Kuwait, which probably qualifies as the least noble of all little-countries-under-siege -- are arguing against any military intervention. No, that's not quite right: Israel qualifies as Iraq's neighbor and, as Safire says, the Israelis would almost certainly not replay their uncharacteristic Gulf War long-sufferingness should a Scud missile appear on the horizon.

But even with Israeli help, can the US bomb Saddam out of power? Unlikely. If you're in the unseating business, there's only so much you can do from the air. Absent an Iraqi opposition (maybe there's such a thing deep in the army, but I wouldn't bet on it), a military campaign from aircraft carriers, no matter how devastating, will probably leave Saddam in power. If there are examples in history where an effective despot has been ousted without occupying his ground, I don't know them.

So Safire is probably right in saying that Uncle Sam is going to have to go in there with troops and that the precondition of sending in troops is the education of public opinion about Saddam's awfulness. Is recalcitrance on UN inspections enough to whip up war enthusiasm? Does possession of biological weapons confer sufficient Hitler-ness? During the early hours of the longest of the previous Groundhog Days -- the Gulf War -- Secretary of State James Baker argued that the conflict was about "jobs, jobs, jobs," and he almost lost his scalp for saying so. Decencies had to be observed, and it just wouldn't do for a high official to say what every guy on a barstool knew was the reason for hostilities: to assure Western predominance in the area of the world that produces the commodity most crucial to Western economies. Oil, oil, oil. Mind you, the left didn't do very well with its "no blood for oil" mantra, but that's because people didn't mind going to war over gasoline so long as: 1) we didn't talk about it; and 2) we won without having to draft anybody.

Americans would surely support air attacks and would probably love to watch Israeli-American ground attacks on television. But what it would cost to make sure that Saddam actually exits the movie this time? And can we talk about the oil business now, before Churchill fever strikes a critical mass of our elected officials?

 

TODAY ON THE SITE

If you're looking for a fluid second only to petroleum as an instigator of national tensions, go no farther than your water faucet. According to Peter Gleick, president of the Pacific Institute and frequent consultant to governments and international NGOs, the supply of fresh water -- particularly in arid countries that share a watercourse -- will figure prominently in 21st Century power games. Check out the Websites recommended in Peter's High Five, and learn how the Euphrates and the Jordan are resuming their legendary importance.

 

Recent "Today" columns:

1/30: Trees and Hormones
1/29: Things To Come (2)
1/28: Things To Come
1/27: 'Bye, 'Bye Brazil
1/26: Jaywalking and Jaydriving
1/23: Good Biotech, Bad Biotech
1/22: No More Roads
1/21: Swordfish
1/20: Electromagnetic Sleuthing
1/16: Good News Way Down Under
1/15: Twenty-Four Forty or Fight!
1/14: Your Tax Dollars at Work
1/13: Johnny Mobil Appleseed
1/12: Superbowl, Scientific Uncertainty, and the Future of Al Gore
1/9: Goodbye, Delaware
1/8: Leaf Blowers, Old Cars, Class Conflict
1/7: The Great Improvement That Didn't
1/6: Proactive, Shmoactive
1/5: Mediocre Landscapes and Hope for the Planet
1/2: The Greatest Environmental Cause of the Year
12/31/97: The Top Twelve Environment Stories of 1997

To access more "Today" columns, click "Archives" below.