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TODAY Tuesday 22 July 1997 Each weekday. Conn Nugent on what's new in the world, on the site.

 

TODAY IN THE WORLD: Climate Chess

Suspend judgment for a moment and indulge this conceit: Bill Clinton is concerned with his proverbial Place In History, and he wants a visionary element to complement his solid but more prosaic record as deficit-cutter and prosperity-presider. NATO expansion is dear to him because it is inarguably important, even revolutionary. He will be remembered for it, though he was criticized in his first term as essentially uninterested in foreign policy. Similarly, he was criticized, sometimes ardently, for his lack of commitment to the environment. Now he wants to remembered as an influential environmental statesman, acting on the world stage.

The President's address to the United Nations earlier this month ("Good Speech [Keep it Quiet]") disappointed environmentalists by its lack of specificity on how much to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but otherwise it was a significant and welcome demonstration of Bill Clinton's state of mind and sense of historical moment. Humans change climate, he said, and the time has come to accept that fact as the basis for further discussions. The effects of the change will pose serious threats to human and natural well-being. Bold remedial measures must be taken, but they must be taken in the context of informed public opinion and a thoughtful dual commitment to environmental protection and economic development. He announced a special effort in the United States -- that he would personally direct -- to educate the public about the dangers of global warming and to involve all sectors of the society in the formulation of an American position for the Kyoto conference this December.

According to the most recent edition of Greenwire, lots of efforts, both substantive and camera-op, are already underway. There was a big public meeting in Seattle, where the effects of climate change scenarios on the Pacific Northwest were charted for the local media: higher temperatures, lower flows on the Columbia and the Snake, loss of forests, declines of marine species, rises in sea level. A delegation of Nobel laureates will soon meet in the White House to discuss the science of global warming and its repercussions. Next month the President will meet with New England activists on Block Island to discuss coastal flooding. There will be a much-ballyhooed domestic summit in October on how to curb greenhouse gas emissions without retarding economic growth. The President (and the Vice President) know that any agreement made in Kyoto in December will have to be ratified by the Senate sometime in early 1998; the ground must be prepared.

This is not lost on the opponents of emission controls. They have mounted a public-policy/public-relations offensive of their own: studies which document the economic catastrophe that would result from the stabilization of fossil fuel burning; op-eds which pit haughty enviros against Mr. and Mrs. Hard-Working America; visits to editorial boards of newspapers. Many Senators and Representatives are now worrying aloud about "unrealistic" climate change policies. Administration officials are afforded rough handling on the subject at congressional hearings ("Muggy Day on The Hill"), particularly through pronouncements on the inequity of America's agreeing to shoulder burdens that China refuses to carry.

So Bill Clinton has to come out of Kyoto with an agreement that will matter historically but that will also sell in the market of domestic politics. The ghost of Woodrow Wilson, outmaneuvered by the Europeans, laid low by the Senate's refusal to join the League of Nations, stalks the Oval Office.

It is in that context that the remarks last week of Hironori Hamanaka were of particular interest. Mr. Hamanaka is the spokesman for the Japanese national environmental agency, and he was reacting to the position of the European Union that Kyoto signatories from the industrial world should commit to dramatic reductions in greenhouse gas emissions: by 2010, say the Europeans, emissions should be 85% of what they were in 1990. "We have, certainly, several problems with this type of proposal," Mr. Hamanaka said. "We don't think it would be realistic to expect that the other parties can agree upon, and also can implement, this ambitious target."

According to Planet Ark, Hamanaka's statement reflects a bitter internal battle between the Japanese environment ministry and the trade ministry, as well as a general sense of regional unease among ambitious East Asians and coal-exporting Australians that the NATO powers want to impose an anti-growth agenda on the rest of the world. But one might be excused for wondering whether Bill Clinton -- who knows something about the advantages of running from the political center -- hasn't played a hand in the setting up of an array of international opinion in which the United States can be presented as the agent for "realism," "fairness," and a "balanced approach."

All politics is local, as Tip O'Neill said, and international climate control may be determined by focus group results in a handful of key American states in the spring of next year. Make ready the soundbites!

TODAY ON THE SITE

We love the aforementioned Planet Ark ("Plug for Planet Ark"), but we owe them an apology, on two counts. One is that Planet Ark is an independent foundation, not, as we stated, a service of Reuters. Two is that we were out of line in criticizing their on-screen ads. There's only one such ad, and it's not so bad. We stand by our disinclination to be charmed by the image of Pierce Brosnan welcoming us to the site. We reserve the right, however, to feature a comparably attractive personality of our own, and welcome inquiries.

Recent "Today" columns:

7/21: Don't Know Much About Conservation
7/18: All Aboard
7/17: Downward and Outward Mobility
7/16: A Muggy Day on The Hill
7/15: Plug for Planet Ark
7/14: Follow Me
7/11: Blood Sports
7/10: Oil and Taxes
7/09: Mexico
7/08: By the Sea, By the Sea

To access more "Today" columns, click "Archives" below.

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