9. Technological Breakthroughs?
Tremendous progress has been made in the area of renewable energy, and
there is promise of more to come. A panoply of technological
developments on the horizon present real hope for reducing greenhouse gas
emissions while not hindering economic progress. In the US, about 33% of
the carbon dioxide produced by human activities are emitted by power
plants, 31% by transportation, 24% by industrial processes, and 12% by
residential uses (e.g. heating, cooling , and running household
appliances). There is considerable room for improvement in each sector.
For example, according to the Worldwatch Institute, most central
power plants convert just one-third of the fuel they consume into
electricity. For most lightbulbs and automobiles that figure is less than 15%.
Though most policy groups believe that it will take powerful government
incentives for the US (and the world) to make the transition to a more
efficient, less carbon-intensive economy, there are several technologies
that offer considerable promise:
COGENERATION AND FUEL CELLS
Small-scale power systems and cogeneration can turn 90 percent of the fuel
consumed into electricity and usable heat. Increasingly, fuel cells -- battery-like devices that efficiently convert fuel to
electricity -- that produce minimal pollution are being employed. Because fuel cells are small
and can be located inside buildings, their waste heat can be used as well.
According to The Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Letter, the HMO Kaiser
Permanente intends to install dozens of fuel cell power plants in its
hospitals, medical offices over the next few years.
NATURAL GAS AND HYDROGEN
As an interim measure, the increased use of natural gas would
benefit the climate, since gas is the least carbon-intensive and most
potentially efficient source among the fossil fuels.
Worldwatch calculates that replacing all US coal-fired power plants
with gas-fired cogenerators could reduce domestic carbon emissions by 25%.
In the long run, it may be possible to replace virtually all fossil
fuels with hydrogen, which when burned, produces mostly energy and
water, with no carbon dioxide and minimal other types of pollution.
WIND POWER
- In 1996, the wind energy industry installed about 1,200 megawatts of
generating capacity, making it the world's fastest-growing energy source for
the second year in a row. Globally, wind power capacity has increased
at least 20% each year since 1990. (For further information on the growth
in global wind energy sources, visit the American Wind Energy
Association.)
- California presently produces enough windpower to supply electricity to
all of San Francisco's residents. Turbine costs have fallen by
two-thirds since the early 1980's, and within the next decade wind
energy is predicted to fall to 3 or 4 cents per kilowatt-hour at good
sites, making it the potentially cheapest energy available on a large scale
worldwide.
SOLAR POWER
- The cost of photovoltaic solar crystalline cells, which convert
sunlight directly to electricity, has fallen more than 90 percent since
1980. Today the cost of solar modules is less than $4 per watt -- down
from $500 per watt in 1972 -- thanks to advances in materials development,
fabrication techniques and improvements in manufacturing processes. And the
price continues to tumble.
- In April, scientists announced that they had achieved a technological
breakthrough in the efficiency of amorphous silicon solar cells,
producing cells with an initial efficiency of 14.6 %, which declines
slightly to 13% after about 1000 hours use, compared to an initial
efficiency of around 12% for conventional crystalline cells. (Philip Cohen, New Scientist, April 4, 1997)
The efficiency of amorphous
silicon cells has traditionally been much lower than that of crystalline
silicon, but the technology has offered the potential of lowered
manufacturing costs.
- On May 18, the Sacramento Municipal Utility District announced it will
buy 10 megawatts of photovoltaic cells, from a new factory to be built
in Sacramento by Energy Photovoltaics of Princeton N.J.. This is the largest
solar purchase every made by a utility. The solar cells will be made of
thin-film silicon. This purchase alone is expected to cause the prices of
solar cells to fall substantially, and in fact the price to utilities will
plummet from 16.3 cents per kilowatt-hour in 1998 to 8.2 cents per
kh by 2002, the final year of the contract. (Matthew L. Wald, The New
York Times, May 19, 1997)
- On May 19, British Petroleum, one of the largest oil companies in the
world, proclaimed that it accepted the reality of global warming, and that
it had decided to radically expand its solar business by increasing sales
from $100 million to $1 billion a year over the next ten years. (Leyla
Boulton, Financial Times, May 18, 1997; see also New in the
Literature for more on BP's announcement.) The company plans this year
to open a new factory in Fairfield, California to produce photovoltaics, its
first in the United States.
- Several other promising thin-film technologies are emerging from
prototype production into first-time manufacturing, including cadmium
telluride films. Moreover, US companies are expected to introduce new
solar products such as photovoltaic roof tiles that also function as roofing
shingles, and a German manufacturer is already making semi-transparent
solar cells that can be integrated into windows, generating electricity
while providing light for residents.
- In October, Amoco/Enron Solar announced that it would build a 10 MW
solar farm in the desert at the Nevada Test Site, where the federal
government used to test nuclear bombs. Construction is anticipated to begin
in 1998. This facility would become the largest photovoltaic power plant
in the United States. Amoco/Enron Solar also has an agreement with the
State of Rajasthan in India for the construction of a 50 MW solar facility,
expected to be the largest photovoltaic power plant in the world.
ENERGY DEREGULATION: A BOON FOR RENEWABLES?
The growing movement to deregulate the electricity market may promote the
wider use of renewable energy.
- In many states, consumers will be allowed to purchase as much "green"
electricity as they choose. In polls undertaken by utilities in various
states, anywhere from 6 to 80% of their customers respond
that they are willing to pay a premium for clean energy.
- Two national utility restructuring bills in Congress, one introduced
by Senator Dale Bumpers (D) from Arkansas, and the other by Rep. Dan
Schaefer (R ) from Colorado, mandate that all electricity suppliers
purchase renewable energy credits, ensuring that a significant percentage
of power will be drawn from non-carbon based sources.
NEW ENERGY-EFFICIENT AUTOMOBILES
Electric cars, hybrid cars that run on both conventional fuels and
electricity, and cars that are powered by fuel cells are all much more
efficient than vehicles that run on solely on gasoline, and their
commercialization could greatly reduce carbon dioxide emissions. In
response to state initiatives in California, Massachusetts, and New York to
require a certain number of zero-emission vehicles be sold by 2003, major
manufacturers are developing some exciting new models.
ELECTRIC VEHICLES
- In December, General Motors began offering the electric EV1 passenger
car, available for lease in California and Arizona. It has already cut
monthly lease rates by 25%. Free recharging stations are being set up
outside restaurants and malls. Even when drivers recharge at home they save
considerable money. (One potential customer estimated that it would cost him
$16 a month to run an EV, compared to $60 for fuel for a regular car.)
Nevertheless, the acceptance of the EV1 faces considerable obstacles, not
the least of which is a range of only 70 to 90 miles between charges. (A. Adelson, New York Times, May 7,
1997.)
- The most promising electric vehicle model to be available soon is
probably Toyota's RAV4-EV, which will be offered for sale this fall in
California and Japan. The RAV4-EV uses nickel-metal hydride (NiMH)
batteries, which have about twice the power of traditional lead-acid
batteries. The car is expected to have a per-charge range of about 118
miles. Meanwhile, GM Ovonics is beginning volume production of a
nickel-metal-hydride battery that could power a car for about 200
miles without recharging, be 60% recharged within 15 minutes, and last about
100,000 miles, or (essentially) the life of the vehicle.
HYBRID VEHICLES
- Ford recently announced that it would build prototypes of a hybrid-powered
vehicle later this year that will use both electricity and gasoline.
The new car would be about the same size as the company's current mid-size
Taurus, but about 40% lighter. (Robert Simison, Wall Street Journal, March 18, 1997. )
Hybrid cars need not be regularly recharged in
the same manner as electric cars, since the gasoline engine automatically
recharges the battery while the car is in motion. They are also expected to
be less expensive than electric cars. Toyota
intends to sell a hybrid car in Japan this year, a compact vehicle that
would get 66 miles per gallon of gasoline and would emit only half the
amount of carbon dioxide of a typical car its size. However, this car is
not expected to be for sale in the US until at least the year 2000. (Andrew Pollack,
New York Times, March 26, 1997; Robert L. Simison,
Wall Street Journal, April 17, 1997.)
FUEL-CELL POWERED CARS
- In April, Ford announced that it plans to design a car that uses
hydrogen-powered fuel cells, ready for viewing by the year 2000
(Matthew L. Wald, New York Times, April 22, 1997).
Chrysler plans to
develop a fuel-cell powered automobile that would convert gasoline to
hydrogen, which could be refueled at conventional gas stations.
Daimler-Benz has also put its bets on fuel-cell technology, which the
company believes will make conventional engines and batteries "obsolete" by
2010; it has just teamed up with Ballard Power Systems of Canada to develop
a fuel cell to power the next generation of their automobiles. (Brandon
Mitchener and Tamsin Carlisle, Wall Street Journal, April
15, 1997) Other companies developing fuel-cell cars include General Motors,
Honda, Volkswagen, and Volvo.
Websites:
Probably the best site for information concerning developments in renewable
energy and efficiency improvements is Solstice,
a popular online clearinghouse on sustainable energy information, run by
the Center for Renewable Energy and Sustainable Technology. The site offers
information and reports on solar, wind, and efficiency technology, and
provides links to almost anywhere else you can think of. They have also
produced a new CD-ROM encyclopedia on renewable energy for high school
students, which you can sample.
The Department of Energy recently released a report, announcing that
renewable energy's share of the nation's total energy supply increased to
7.6%, up from 7.1% in 1994. The increase was mostly due to
"weather-related" rise in hydroelectric power, but solar power rose as well.
The National Renewable Energy Lab
provides the basic facts about clean energy, and information about developments
in the technology of photovoltaics and wind energy.
The American
Wind Energy Association (AWEA) promotes wind as a reliable, environmentally-superior
energy source. It also provides access to back issues of its industry newsletter,
Wind Energy Weekly.
The American Solar Energy Society
(ASES), a national organization dedicated to advancing the use of solar
energy.
The Hydrogen & Fuel Letter
offers selected articles from its back issues.
The Rocky Mountain Institute, run
by Hunter and Amory Lovins, is a nonprofit research and educational foundation,
which offers new energy solutions by means of market economics and advanced
technologies, and advocates the development of a new hybrid car, known
as the hypercar.
General Motors has a Website for its EV1
vehicle, and Toyota maintains one for its
RAV4-EV.
Ford has an EV Website
that includes information about its Ecostar, a two-passenger electricvan
introduced in 1993, now in fleet service across the US, Canada and Europe,
and its Ford Ranger EV pickup truck, a new version of its compact truck,
due to be introduced next year, with a conventional lead-acid battery.
Solectria, a small independent
manufacturer of EVs, also has its own home page, offering data about its
Source sedan, the first EV for sale that runs on nickel-metal hydride batteries
with a range of 100 miles.
You can also visit the Partnership
for a New Generation of Vehicles, a cooperative effort between the
Federal government and the automobile industry, launched in 1993 to achieve
a prototype vehicle capable of 80 miles per gallon of gasoline by 2004.
(If you have a bright idea that could contribute to such an invention,
you can even submit
proposals directly to the respective agencies and receive government
funding .
Or check out the Source for
Renewable Energy, which catalogues over 2200 renewable
energy-related businesses throughout the World in its browsable
directory.
More on Climate: Table of Contents | Twelve Hundred Words or Less... | Web Resources
Activist Groups | Voices | New in
the Literature | Hotspots
History of Climate Negotiations | Glossary of Negotiator Terms | On the Other Hand...
Policy Options | Technological Breakthroughs? | Want to Get Involved?
Real Time
