in the trenches/population

 

1. In Twelve Hundred Words or Less

 

THE CLASS OF 2000: 6.1 BILLION AND COUNTING

The vast majority of population growth has taken place in less than one-tenth of one percent of human history.

Today we share the Earth and its resources with 236,000 more people than yesterday. We add a New York City every month, a Mexico every year, a China every decade.

The most recent set of United Nations projections for the year 2050 show that global population--currently at 5.8 billion people--could either stabilize at 7.9 billion, or reach 11.9 billion and continue to grow.

What are the consequences of this growth, 95 percent of which is occurring in the developing world?

Environmental and population advocates believe that the cumulative impact of ever more people using ever more resources is seriously degrading the foundations of life--the air, water, croplands, grasslands, forests and fisheries. In country after country, they say, the natural resource base is shrinking while the pressures upon it--fueled by increasing consumption and population growth--are increasing rapidly.

They marshal the following facts and figures to illustrate their point:

• Land-- Human activities already have destroyed 11 percent of the globe's arable land, the size of China and India combined. The loss of land and soils stretches the world's ability to provide food in support of today's population. Every year, the world's farmers--due to population growth and environmental degradation--must feed 86 million more people with 28 billion fewer tons of to psoil
• Forests--Each year some 42 million acres of tropical forest disappear, an area about the size of Washington State, as land is cleared for cropland, human settlements and fuelwood.
• Air--The burning of forests and fuelwood (to heat homes and cook food in the developing world) and fossil fuels (to run cars and industries in the developed world) is causing rapid-buildup of carbon dioxide, the key "greenhouse" gas.
• Water--Per capita supplies of fresh water are a third lower than in 1970. In 1995, about 386 million people in 31 countries lived in conditions of water stress or water scarcity. Most of these countries have high population growth rates.

Advocates also point to population pressures at home. Today's US population of about 267 million is double that of 1940. Between 1990 to 1996, the US added an average of 2.7 million people to its population every year, about one-third from immigration and the rest from "natural increase" (births minus deaths). If current trends continue, US population could double again in the next 60 years.

One must look beyond the numbers. In many ways, the 1.2 billion people in developed countries are doing more damage than the 4.6 billion in developing countries. Burgeoning consumption among the rich and increasing dependence on ecologically unsound technologies to supply that consumption play major roles. This is especially true in the United States, where Americans consume more energy, food and water and produce more solid waste than any other nation's population.

 

WHAT'S GROWING ON HERE?

As income and consumption in the developing world increasingly approximate those of the industrialized world, a question looms: Absent either population stabilization or a complete revolution in the technology of energy and materials, how long can nature and humans co-exist? Some argue that technological advances will "liberate" economic growth from environmental harm, but the consensus remains that increases in consumerism inevitably leads to decreases in finite natural resources.

The world's scientific community has already responded. In Spring 1992, the National Academy of Sciences and the Royal Society of London, in a first ever joint statement, warned that "if current predictions of population growth prove accurate and patterns of human activity on the planet remain unchanged, science and technology may not be able to prevent either irreversible degradation of the environment or continued poverty for much of the world."

This is not to say that everyone sees population as a problem. In fact, the issue is intensely controversial. Experts are engaged in a lively debate over such questions as:

• Is poverty the cause or consequence of rapid population growth?
• Is family planning or economic and social development the best way to slow population growth?
• Does population growth lead to decreasing wages and increasing unemployment, or is it vital to a healthy economy by replenishing the labor force and supplying new ideas and innovations?
• What's the solution to curbing population pressures in the US? Should we reduce levels of immigration? Stop wasteful consumption? Teach abstinence among teenagers? Make contraceptive services and information more readily available?
• Is the environment and natural resource base really threatened, and, if so, does population growth even play a role?
• Do population programs help or hurt women?
• Why worry about population growth or environmental degradation? Technology will come to the rescue.

   

In addition to the raging debate, population advocates often find themselves embroiled in an issue rooted in deep moral, philosophical and religious differences -- abortion.

Such was the case at the 1994 UN International Conference on Population and Development held in Cairo, Egypt--the third in a series of UN population conferences. Despite the prolonged, even gridlocked, debate over abortion, the conference was generally deemed a success. Consensus on a global plan of action was reached among 180 government delegations.

That Cairo"Programme of Action" identifies policies and programs to help stabilize population, and centers on meeting the development needs of women, particularly affording women legal, educational, economic and social equality. Other strategies include: making voluntary family planning services universally available; developing safer and more effective contraceptives for men and women; improving infant and child survival rates; breaking the cycle of poverty and resource disparity; implementing more efficient technologies; and curbing wasteful consumption.

Although consensus was reached, and action is underway, many governments have not yet found the resources needed to fully implement this plan

Incidentally, in the time it took you to read this summary, the world added another 246 people.

 

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