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TODAY Monday 1 December 1997 Each weekday. Conn Nugent on what's new in the world, on the site.

 

TODAY IN THE WORLD: Public Opinion

Polls, polls, polls. An abundance of public opinion sampling has crossed the nation's newsdesks in the runup to today's opening of the Kyoto Conference, and it looks as if God is the big loser.

During the dinner hours of 23-24 November, The New York Times asked 953 representative American adults the following question: "In the past few years, would you say the weather generally has followed its normal patterns or been stranger than usual?" Unsurprising to anyone at diners or on checkout lines, two out of three said "stranger than usual." When those respondents were asked to pinpoint the cause of the strangeness, however, a wide range of views was presented. The leader was "Don't Know/No Answer" at 34%. Next came "El Nino" at 17%. Then, according to The Times, the cause was ascribed to "Ozone/Global Warming" (13%); "Pollution" (11%); "Space Travel/Satellites" (10%); "God" (8%); "Nature" (7%); and "Other" (3%).

That God trails space exploration by two points and barely squeaks out a win over Nature is quite a comedown, epistemologically speaking. The monotheism of St. Augustine's R.C. School was certainly a handier belief system than the current version. Anyway, if you add "El Nino," "Ozone Global Warming," and "Pollution" together, you get a little more than 40% in a category that might be called "Anthrogenic Causes Not Including Crazed Theories About Space Travel."

When coupled with the finding from the same poll that 49% of the respondents thought that "Greenhouse Gases" were responsible for global warming ("Don't Know/No Answer" got 26% and "Normal Climate Fluctuations" got 16%), these answers provide pretty decent satisfaction to all those who have tried to grab the lapels of public opinion over the last couple of years on the subject of climate change. The world's getting warmer, the weather's getting weirder, and human beings are responsible for both. Can't ask for much more in the public awareness category.

There are even indications that public opinion will support some modest efforts to ameliorate the problem. Half the respondents in the poll supported new efficiency standards for cars and appliances, and almost half said that they would "be willing to invest in new appliances and insulation to cut household emissions of greenhouse gases." Best of all (from the enviro point of view), only 17% agreed with the statement that reducing emissions "will cost too much money and hurt the US economy."

Now for the grains of salt. Recall that President Clinton's national health plan was popular in the polls until the insurance industry cranked up a public relations juggernaut. We can assume that the more stringent the treaty (if there is a treaty) the more lavish the campaign against it in preparation for the Senate ratification debate. Granted, the public has a discerning attitude towards industry campaigns against environmental regulations (people believe that economic growth and environmental protection can go hand in hand, and they don't like to hear otherwise), but the anti-Kyoto effort will be a doozie.

And there's a more fundamental problem, which only an energetic environmental movement and an interested media industry can address over the next few months: people don't yet care much about climate change. Recent findings from The Pew Research Center for the People and the Press indicate that global warming is a second-tier concern of a second-tier concern. The environment did not even make the list of policy issues "followed closely" by voters in 1997. It trails way behind Social Security, IRS reform, the federal budget, abortions, and Medicare. And among environmental anxieties, global warming ranks low, behind air and water pollution, toxic wastes, and destruction of natural resources.

But let's end upbeat. As Carl Pope at the Sierra Club has always said, concern about pollution should and can easily become concern about global warming so long as environmentalists keep things simple. And the Pew data also reveals an unexpected streak of popular hard-headedness. About 60% of the respondents said that they would support a 25 cent per gallon gasoline increase as part of an overall strategy to blunt climate change. Now there's a pleasant surprise. Is it reliable?

 

TODAY ON THE SITE

For a two-year old summary and analysis of what was then American public opinion regarding things environmental -- things haven't really changed all that much -- see the first part of our special In The Trenches report on Biodiversity and How To Talk About It.

 

Recent "Today" columns:

11/26: Sperm
11/25: Sound Sound-Bite Science
11/24: Home Sweet Storage Locker
11/21: Tim Wirth's Inscrutable Adventure
11/20: Better to Receive than to Give
11/19: Wes Jackson's Problem with Agriculture
11/18: "Stay Home and Be Decent"
11/17: World Cups (Soccer; C02)
11/14: Amtrak, My Amtrak
11/13: Tim Wirth's Excellent Adventure

To access more "Today" columns, click "Archives" below.