newsroom

TODAY Friday 12 December 1997 Each weekday. Conn Nugent on what's new in the world, on the site.

 

TODAY IN THE WORLD: Good Week for the Dragon

Most second-guessers, me included, just assumed that any agreement reached at Kyoto would be signed by the President and then sent to the Senate for ratification sometime in the first half of 1998. The industry lobbies certainly thought so, and Trent Lott is saying that Bill Clinton assured him of it. This morning's papers make it clear it's not going to happen that way.

There doesn't seem to be a soul within a fifty mile radius of Capitol Hill who thinks the Senate would cast a favorable vote on the Kyoto agreement if the vote were held next week. Which explains why Senator Lott is pushing, why Mobil is taking out big ads saying "Let the Senate Speak," and why industry spokesmen are rushing to the microphones to excoriate the lack of binding commitments by developing countries.

This President is no dope, and he and the Vice President went to some lengths yesterday to say that they, too, believe that the big Third World countries are going to have to sign on to something enforceable. We began to hear the Kyoto text described as "an historic first step." Attention now turns to the plenary follow-up to Kyoto, scheduled for November 1998 in Buenos Aires. Administration strategists have to hope that before then they can work out some kind of a deal with China, India, Indonesia, Brazil, Nigeria, et. al. that culminates in a new protocol that binds all signatories. Such an outcome could be depicted as a triumph of American diplomacy. Meanwhile, environmentalists and alternative energy boosters will have had some time to work on the media and public opinion. A few anti-Kyoto senators up for re-election are punished at the polls by the enviros and then -- who knows? -- maybe there's a chance for ratification in early 1999. A chance.

These developments are favorable to at least two important power blocs: enviros skilled at public advocacy and the Chinese government. There will be lots of paid work for the enviros and the Chinese have maneuvered themselves into a position of almost Bismarckian influence.

In Kyoto the Chinese deprived the US of its most important demand (in terms of American domestic politics), namely that all major countries sign on to do something measurable from the getgo. They also provided an excellent target for use by congressional and industrial demagogues. The President needs their agreement to something-or-other in Buenos Aires, and they're in a position to dictate some highly favorable terms. They want money and technology, and we and the Europeans and the Japanese will have to fork over a fair amount of both. As Ian Johnson made clear in an illuminating story in yesterday's Wall Street Journal, China is going to need all sorts of help in the way of pollution control, soil conservation, and energy efficiency. The trick will be to persuade them (and us!) that getting rich and preserving nature can go hand in hand. That no one's exactly sure about all the details is one of the reasons that this issue is so interesting.

 

TODAY ON THE SITE

So it's gear-shifting time for all of us climate wonks: time to think about uplifting public messages for the next year that can demonstrate the practicality of a non-fossil fuel future. The never-at-a-loss David Tenenbaum of The Why Files provides persuasive evidence that solar photovoltaics are on the verge of a commercial breakthrough.

 

Recent "Today" columns:

12/11: Help Wanted: Unreasonable Extremists
12/10: Oh Boy! A Fight!
12/9: Running Away From It All
12/8: "What I Wouldn't Give for This War to End."
12/5: Feisty Euros at Kyoto
12/4: Beauty in the Bronx
12/3: God from Machine
12/2: Gentlemen's Bet
12/1: Public Opinion
11/26: Sperm
11/25: Sound Sound-Bite Science
11/24: Home Sweet Storage Locker
11/21: Tim Wirth's Inscrutable Adventure
11/20: Better to Receive than to Give
11/19: Wes Jackson's Problem with Agriculture
11/18: "Stay Home and Be Decent"

To access more "Today" columns, click "Archives" below.