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TODAY Tuesday 2 December 1997 Each weekday. Conn Nugent on what's new in the world, on the site.

 

TODAY IN THE WORLD: Gentlemen's Bet

I am willing to wager Mom's monthly maintenance fee on the proposition that...

either

There will be no treaty produced at Kyoto that contains any specific, binding greenhouse gas reductions;

or

The Kyoto Conference will produce a treaty with the following characteristics:

1. All signatories will bind themselves to do something-or-other from the outset, but the text will also sanction variations in compliance -- by region, by GDP, and by other special circumstances. Differentiations will be more shaded than developed countries v. developing countries.

2. No country outside of Europe will take on binding reductions more stringent than those put forward in the US proposal, and the Europeans will cave a lot by the end.

3. Solemn promises will be undertaken regarding the quick and low-cost transfer of energy-saving technologies from the rich countries to the poor countries; delivery on those promises will be the explicit precondition for any major undertakings by China, India, Indonesia, Brazil and other key Third World powers.

4. There will be some kind of emissions trading system whereby Country A can receive credit for gas reductions in Country B, but few delegates will be able to explain it.

5. Designation of enforcement agencies and their procedures will be finalized at a later date.

Any takers? I bet mom's allowance with confidence because there's too much respectability gathering around the five points enumerated. Conventional wisdom now agrees that there's some kind of climate problem, that it's not clear how much of one, and that therefore prudence argues for definite but modest steps as we learn more about the dynamics of climate and the costs of curtailing normal economic activity in order to ameliorate possible negatives. Chairman John Browne of British Petroleum to Peter Passell of The New York Times, to the cover story of this week's Economist, to conciliatory noises now being made by Mobil and the Global Climate Coalition -- all point to a possible consensus among the pillars of global capitalism. Whether the would-be rich of the world buy into the deal is far from certain, which is why a no-treaty outcome is still quite likely. And whether any treaty will win ratification in the Senate is even more problematic (the Administration is now talking about a vote way off in 1999). But if there is a treaty text, I'll throw in Junior's college tuition that we're right. Disappointingly so.

 

TODAY ON THE SITE

To serve our Kyoto-crazed readers, we've amalgamated some of our best climate-change features under one cyber-roof. We call it Kyoto Junction, and there you'll find everything you need: our In The Trenches info; latest news and op-eds; and instant links to all the best sites for keeping up with the goings-on in the Town That Shinto Built.

 

Recent "Today" columns:

12/1: Public Opinion
11/26: Sperm
11/25: Sound Sound-Bite Science
11/24: Home Sweet Storage Locker
11/21: Tim Wirth's Inscrutable Adventure
11/20: Better to Receive than to Give
11/19: Wes Jackson's Problem with Agriculture
11/18: "Stay Home and Be Decent"
11/17: World Cups (Soccer; C02)
11/14: Amtrak, My Amtrak
11/13: Tim Wirth's Excellent Adventure

To access more "Today" columns, click "Archives" below.